INTEL ANALYSIS (Algeria-Tunisia). July/September main incidents and evolution

TUNISIA (July, 2017) – Geopolitical developments

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ANALYSIS

  • The foreign trade deficit is a situation of worry for those countries depending on energy, industry and trade. The change on the economic relations of Turkey (which is breaking with Europe) has moved this country to search for a strengthening of other bilateral relations.
  • Turkey will import olive oil and phosphate, which is generally used for fertilizer, from Tunisia.
  • Social protests will continue, mostly in the urban areas –Tunis, Sidi Bouzid) related to the economic injustice and corruption.
  • Anti-terror operations continue close to the border with Algeria, in the area of Kasserine, Sidi Bouzid and Tizi Ouzou mostly.

 

ALGERIA (July, 2017) – Geopolitical developments

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ANALYSIS

  • The bill against imports has been taken in order to increase and resurrect Algerian economy, affected by the decrease of the oil prices. The decision will mostly affect those areas more dependent in foreign trade, which will need an economic change and an improvement of the infrastructures.
  • Egypt will continue its economic relations with Algeria: Egypt ranks first among foreign countries investing in Algeria outside the fuel sector, especially in the telecommunications market.
  • China has increased its involvement in the government evolution of Algeria, interested in Algeria’s good governance.

 

TUNISIA (September, 2017) – Geopolitical developments

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ANALYSIS

  • Criminality and smuggling is affecting more the poorest areas of the country (Gabes, Sfax) as the terrorism threat is located close to the Algerian and Libyan border.
  • Social protests continue, mostly in the urban areas –Tunis, Sidi Bouzid-, but is affecting also the poorest areas of the country (Sousse, Jendouba…) related to the lack of employment, infrastructures and water supply.

 

ALGERIA (September, 2017) – Geopolitical developments

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ANALYSIS

  • Venezuela has made a visit to Algeria in order to improve the bilateral relations, related to the economic situation of both countries (dependent on energy trade).
  • The economy of Algeria is recovering, mainly thanks to the potentiation of the national production, the bilateral relations and even to the unstable situation with the Kurdistan, which is forcing many countries to look for new insurers of their business.
  • The education, transportation infrastructure and health facilities are being a concern. Also, as in Tunisia has affected, in Algeria there were protests due to the lack of water supply and industry infrastructures.
  • The insecurity (terrorist movements and smuggling) on the Libyan and Moroccan borders has obligated to increase the security presence on the Eastern part of the country.

 

CONCLUSIONS:

MAIN INCIDENTS IN TUNISIA (July-September 2017)

*Worrying situation: increase of violent incidents and protests related to the new Amnesty Law, the lack of employment and the poor infrastructures for the workers.

*Better conditions of security: Smuggling, robbery and terrorist threat security operations.

*Areas of destabilization: Kef, Tunis, Sousse, Sfax, Kasserine, border with Libya.

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Tunisia

MAIN INCIDENTS IN ALGERIA (July-September 2017)

*Worrying situation: increase of protests and violent incidents over economic injustice and corruption and repression committed by security forces. There is an increased concern over the bad conditions of the education, health, transport and water supply facilities.

*Better conditions of security: Smuggling, robbery and terrorist threat security operations.

*Areas of destabilization: Medea, Tizi Ouzou, Alger, Tipasa, Tindouf, Tiemcen, Sidi Bell Abess, Tiaret, Tebessa, Jijel, Bechar, border with Libya, Morocco and Tunisia.

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Algeria

 

MARTA Gª OUTÓN

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